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Welcome to Nightly Patterns! – Overnight Trading

This futures trading room focusses on high leverage Overnight Trading with futures:

“Just open the trade at the close and, if not stopped, close it at the open.”

One of the main advantages of the Nightly Patterns trading style is that it gives traders the opportunity to trade at a specific time, avoiding constant market screening. Furthermore, it allows traders to keep their money in cash during the day, making it possible to add Overnight Trading to other Intraday Trading strategies. Its unique time horizon makes this trading style completely uncorrelated to most other strategies, leading to superior portfolio diversification.

To download the results excel sheet follow this link: TRADING RESULTS

Have a look at my over 400 PATTERNS library following this link: PATTERNS LIBRARY

This picture shows NIGHTLY PATTERNS’ backtested equity growth back to 1993:

SYSTEMS_EVENTS

I search nightly patterns like people in the north look for Aurora Borealis.

If you want to subscribe NIGHTLY PATTERNS follow the procedure here:

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The FREE posts will be published the day after with a short trade overview. (from 7th January 2015)

If you are interested in Nightly Patterns’ KNOWLEDGE,

here are my Quantitative Guidebooks:

SYSTEMS

“I search nightly patterns like people in the north look for Aurora Borealis.”

AUSTRALIA-ANTARCTICA-AURORA AUSTRALIS

GLOBAL TRADE TITAN AWARD

Nightly Patterns belongs to the 10 best  sites

out of more than 1358 global futures trading rooms

again in 2018, since 2014

TTW 2015 bb

WHO ARE THE GLOBAL TRADE TITANS?

Check them all at:

WWW.GLOBALTRADETITANS.COM

I swing traded as a PROTRADER at:

VERIFIED INVESTING

I trade VIX etps at:

BACKTESTINGVIX

and GOLD at

GOLD TRADING GOLD

and my full trading strategies portfolio:

QUANTFOR


MY VISITORS GLOBE – WHERE DO TRADERS COME FROM?

Map

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I wish I had a future… on S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats etf!

nobl

I’m always looking around for new market edges… There’s a lot written on high dividends stocks stronger bullish bias over lower dividend stocks. Many articles have been written on fundamentals factors and so on over dividends… I decided to run a simple backtest this morning:

be long every day at the overnight session on NOBL etf (from today’s close to next day’s open), you can see this on the “above zero line” cumulative % return equity curve (not compounded);

the opposite (always long) (from today’s open to today’s close) equity curve is displayed of course below the zero line. It shows a strong bearish edge. Intraday session delivers a total 70% loss being long everyday.

It is clear from the chart above that the overnight session leads to strong performances being long all nights: about 117% return since this etf inception in October 2013.

This is roughly 3 times the equal strategy returns of SPY! (it’s about 35% since 2013)

I wish I had a future…

More than 6 years of Nightly Patterns!

Greetings traders!

It’s more than 6 years now Nightly Patterns is trading LIVE (October 2012).

It’s not easy to find trading services that have been trading live for more than 6 years profitably.

What have traders following Nightly Patterns since October 2012 earned so far?

I know, I know… we lost in 2015. I’m not “Mr Market”. This is part of the game. We closed 6 profitable years out of 7. And that loss was very little compared to the huge profits.

Anyway, it depends on the number of contracts traded and their consistency. It’s not easy to be patient and consistent in the long run, specially during long and deep drawdowns. Updated results here. But at the end patience and consistency win the game!

Many of you have been keeping on trading and many have been trying and leaving. Consistency and patience, it pays to stay!

Here are the numbers:

6 years

Well, I have considered 6 years for the yearly subscription fee so $798*6 = $4788. And Ihave considered 1,2 as an average eur/usd change rate, as yearly Nightly Patterns fee is 665 Eur. I didn’t consider brokers futures trading fees. Mainly because trading frequency is low and futures fees per contract are usually very low too, the impact is minimal.

The % impact of Nightly Patterns subscription on returns goes from 19% to 2% as we increase the number of contracts.

I let you think about the numbers!

Hope to see you in,

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

Free giveaway for Christmas!

Enter free giveaway 1 yearly Nightly Patterns subscription plan!

5 years

Presidential Cycle overnight perspective

The Presidential Cycle is a well-known stock market phenomena. There are 4 years in the cycle:

– Election year

– Post-Election year

– Midterm year

– Pre-Election year

I decided to run a backtest on SPY since its inception in 1993 to see whether this long term seasonality/cycle had an effect on overnight trading.

The answer to this question is yes, as you can see from the sheet above.

I considered trading all nights only during the traditional bullish months for stocks:

January – February – March – April – November – December.

I would say Midterm and Pre-election years to be the 2 best years with above 1,33 profit factor and lower % drawdown. Post election year is acceptable, nearly the same values as Pre-Election year.

It is clear that  Election year is terrible for overnight trading with very low profit factor and very high % drawdown.

Anyway these results are not tradable but they can offer traders an idea of where one of the most famous long-term bias lies.

If you have any questions, please write me at: nightlypatterns@hotmail.com

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

QuantFor

RSI2 overnight returns since 1993 – Still good?

Previous post: #1 of the Cornerstones series.

Here we come with the second cornerstone of Nightly Patterns:  RSI2 (Relative Strength Index) used to filter long overnight trades on SPY back to 1993. We take all overnight trades on SPY when today’s close is above 200 SMA and RSI2 value is below 20.

Why did I choose 20 as a RSI threshold? Because this is the most common value considered as an oversold threshold. I’m not looking for the best threshold but I’m only working on the general phenomena consistency. And I’m wondering if all my patterns built on RSI2 are still solid enough.

How are 200 SMA and RSI2 dealing with the new recent data?

NT %W PF AW AL MAX MIN % DRAWDOWN
731 67,72 1,92 0,36 -0,4 4,09 -3,23 -4,28
T-score 5,78

It’s not doing so well from the numbers above. Profit factor (reduced from last year stats). I remember it was above 2. 731 nights from 1993. I like the compounded drawdown which keeps there under 4,5%.

And here’s the equity curve:

RSI 2

Impressive start in the 90’s leads to good filtering efficiency in 2001/2 and 2008/9 big bear markets (thanks to 200 SMA filter). It looks like we have problems recently, in the last year we are experiencing an important correction and we are still below the last peak on the equity line (look at the top-right corner of the chart).

Anyway, I don’t see a definite change in the structure of the curve, as we have already been recovering during the last few months. It looks like all RSI2 based patterns will continue to outperform the market as they have have done in the last 25 years!

It will continue… with the other cornerstones!

If you have any questions, please write me at: nightlypatterns@hotmail.com

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

QuantFor

New Nightly Patterns rules set results!

I’ve been spending months thinking how to increase Nightly Patterns trading frequency without experiencing extreme drawdowns.
As we deal with futures (20X leverage or 5% margin on Emini contracts) drawdowns on capital used as margin can be very high.
Instead on using the Odds Map very selective approach, I tried to make a more rough trade selection. The equity curve above shows strong returns, about 400% from SPY inception, trading SPY. Can you imagine expoiting Emini futures leverage?

This is the most robust set of rules:

Take a LONG trade when there are MORE than 5 bullish patterns triggering and NO bearish patterns triggering.

Take a SHORT trade when there are MORE than 2 bearish patterns triggering and LESS than 3 bullish patterns triggering.

Here are the numbers:

Profit Factor = 2,96

% of winning trades = 69%

# of trades (since 1993) = 1908

# of trades per year = 76

# of trades per month = 6,36

Trade frequency rised from 5 to more than 6 trades per month. But what I like most are the following monthly returns on SPY, which are definitely better than my previous approach, last 5 years of live performance included. I know, I know, this is only a backtest and not a live trading results sheet.
But I think they are robust enough.

Here is the simple SPY version returns on invested equity:

new nules monthly spy

And here is the 5% margin Emini (20X leveraged) version monthly double digit returns

on invested equity:

new rules monthly ES

Lastly, I want to make you focus on the 71% monthly drawdown on 2009, it was about 80% measured daily. Very high, that’s why traders need a cash reserve trading futures.
It means traders only have 20% of cash reserve left to face further drawdowns (not so much), with current 50% invested equity/50% of cash reserve rule. Globally it was 40% drawdown on total Nightly Patterns dedicated capital.

To be prudent I think to raise the current 50%/50% equity/cash ratio at least to 60%/40% equity/cash new ratio for aggressive traders, and to 70%/30% equity/cash for prudent traders.

So on total Nightly Patterns dedicated capital: 

max % daily drawdowns = 32% (aggressive traders – 40% invested equity)

max % daily drawdowns = 24% (prudent traders – 30% invested equity)

This is the price to pay for these new strong double digit returns! You can look at the SPY daily % drawdowns chart (drawdown on Emini margins must be leveraged by 20x)

new rules spy drawdowns

 

5 pivotal strategies for profitable futures trading

Greetings traders!

I am pleased to announce an exciting event featuring Nightly Patterns:

Dr. Dean’s lecture 

1728 Futures Trade Rooms: 5 pivotal strategies for profitable futures trading”

GTT_promo_image_Sept12_18

to be held on  Wednesday September 12, 2018; at 1:00 pm EST

Registration link:  here.

5 years and more Nightly Patterns sum up

Greetings traders!

It’s more than 5 years now Nightly Patterns is trading LIVE (October 2012). They will be 6 years in October 2018.

It’s not easy to find trading services that have been trading live for more than 5 years profitably.

What have traders following Nightly Patterns since October 2012 earned so far?

I know, I know… we lost in 2015. I’m not “Mr Market”. This is part of the game. We closed 6 profitable years out of 7. And that loss was very little compared to the huge profits.

Anyway, it depends on the number of contracts traded and their consistency. It’s not easy to be patient and consistent in the long run, specially during long and deep drawdowns. Updated results here. But at the end patience and consistency win the game!

Many of you have been keeping on trading and many have been trying and leaving. Consistency and patience, it pays to stay!

Here are the numbers:

5 years.png

Well, I have considered 6 years for the yearly subscription fee so $798*6 = $4788. And Ihave considered 1,2 as an average eur/usd change rate, as yearly Nightly Patterns fee is 665 Eur. I didn’t consider brokers futures trading fees. Mainly because trading frequency is low and futures fees per contract are usually very low too, the impact is minimal.

The % impact of Nightly Patterns subscription goes from 22% to 2% as we increase the number of contracts.

I let you think about the numbers!

Hope to see you in,

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

 

 

 

 

Is 200 SMA still alive?

Many traders usually ask me how do I know my overnight trading patterns will still be profitable in future.

Well, one way is to constantly monitor patterns stats and equity curves to see “how” they change with new data. But as we deal with hundreds of patterns, the main problem is that it can happen that a pattern equity curve goes out of the track for a few months and then, when the trader decides not to rely on it anymore, it suddenly comes back to be profitable.

The real question is: is there a way to detect if a change in the equity curve is temporary or permanent?

The answer is yes. We must move away from a single patterns stats and change perspective. Look at the general picture.
What is the underlying market phenomena telling us?
What is its equity curve doing now?

If it’s against us, then I will opt for the permanent change in the single patterns behaviour. Otherwise it’s only a fake failing.

Here we come with the first cornerstone of Nightly Patterns:  200 SMA (Simple Moving Average) used to filter long overnight trades on SPY back to 1993. We take all overnight trades on SPY when today’s close is above 200 SMA.

How is 200 SMA dealing with the new recent data?

NT %W PF AW AL MAX MIN % DRAWDOWN
4546 57,70 1,29 0,31 -0,33 4,09 -3,41 -13,56
    T-score 4,87        

It’s doing well from the numbers above. Good profit factor (improved from my last year stats). I remember it was weakening to 1,11.  4546 nights from 1993. I like the compounded drawdown which keeps there under 15%.

And here’s the equity curve:

200 SMA CORNERSTONE

Impressive start in the 90’s leads to good filtering efficiency in 2001/2 and 2008/9 big bear markets. It looks like we have problems recently but the equity curve resumed strongly upward.

I believe 200 SMA is one of the oldest and most well-known stock market filters and maybe, mainly because of that, it will be the last leaving the table!

It will continue… with the other cornerstones!

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

Futures Trading Room – Overnight Overview of November the 6th 2017

Here’s what I sent to subscribers:

The following patterns are triggering:
SHORT PATTERNS 27-83-108-113-114- (PRICE-SEASONALITY)
ODDS MAP 0,74 – 39 – 46
STOP LOSS = 17 ES points
TAKE PROFIT = none 
I will enter SHORT.
I’m a bit late on reporting Nightly Patterns alerts. This was a very small losing trade…
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