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Welcome to Nightly Patterns! – Overnight Trading

This futures trading room focusses on high leverage Overnight Trading with futures:

“Just open the trade at the close and, if not stopped, close it at the open.”

One of the main advantages of the Nightly Patterns trading style is that it gives traders the opportunity to trade at a specific time, avoiding constant market screening. Furthermore, it allows traders to keep their money in cash during the day, making it possible to add Overnight Trading to other Intraday Trading strategies. Its unique time horizon makes this trading style completely uncorrelated to most other strategies, leading to superior portfolio diversification.

To download the results excel sheet follow this link: TRADING RESULTS

Have a look at my over 400 PATTERNS library following this link: PATTERNS LIBRARY

This picture shows NIGHTLY PATTERNS’ backtested equity growth back to 1993:

SYSTEMS_EVENTS

I search nightly patterns like people in the north look for Aurora Borealis.

If you want to subscribe NIGHTLY PATTERNS follow the procedure here:

SUBSCRIPTION BUTTON

The FREE posts will be published the day after with a short trade overview. (from 7th January 2015)

If you are interested in Nightly Patterns’ KNOWLEDGE,

here are my Quantitative Guidebooks:

SYSTEMS

“I search nightly patterns like people in the north look for Aurora Borealis.”

AUSTRALIA-ANTARCTICA-AURORA AUSTRALIS

GLOBAL TRADE TITAN AWARD

Nightly Patterns belongs to the 10 best  sites

out of more than 1358 global futures trading rooms

again in 2018, since 2014

TTW 2015 bb

WHO ARE THE GLOBAL TRADE TITANS?

Check them all at:

WWW.GLOBALTRADETITANS.COM

I swing traded as a PROTRADER at:

VERIFIED INVESTING

I trade VIX etps at:

BACKTESTINGVIX

and GOLD at

GOLD TRADING GOLD


MY VISITORS GLOBE – WHERE DO TRADERS COME FROM?

Map

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New Nightly Patterns rules set results!

I’ve been spending months thinking how to increase Nightly Patterns trading frequency without experiencing extreme drawdowns.
As we deal with futures (20X leverage or 5% margin on Emini contracts) drawdowns on capital used as margin can be very high.
Instead on using the Odds Map very selective approach, I tried to make a more rough trade selection. The equity curve above shows strong returns, about 400% from SPY inception, trading SPY. Can you imagine expoiting Emini futures leverage?

This is the most robust set of rules:

Take a LONG trade when there are MORE than 5 bullish patterns triggering and NO bearish patterns triggering.

Take a SHORT trade when there are MORE than 2 bearish patterns triggering and LESS than 3 bullish patterns triggering.

Here are the numbers:

Profit Factor = 2,96

% of winning trades = 69%

# of trades (since 1993) = 1908

# of trades per year = 76

# of trades per month = 6,36

Trade frequency rised from 5 to more than 6 trades per month. But what I like most are the following monthly returns on SPY, which are definitely better than my previous approach, last 5 years of live performance included. I know, I know, this is only a backtest and not a live trading results sheet.
But I think they are robust enough.

Here is the simple SPY version returns on invested equity:

new nules monthly spy

And here is the 5% margin Emini (20X leveraged) version monthly double digit returns

on invested equity:

new rules monthly ES

Lastly, I want to make you focus on the 71% monthly drawdown on 2009, it was about 80% measured daily. Very high, that’s why traders need a cash reserve trading futures.
It means traders only have 20% of cash reserve left to face further drawdowns (not so much), with current 50% invested equity/50% of cash reserve rule. Globally it was 40% drawdown on total Nightly Patterns dedicated capital.

To be prudent I think to raise the current 50%/50% equity/cash ratio at least to 60%/40% equity/cash new ratio for aggressive traders, and to 70%/30% equity/cash for prudent traders.

So on total Nightly Patterns dedicated capital: 

max % daily drawdowns = 32% (aggressive traders – 40% invested equity)

max % daily drawdowns = 24% (prudent traders – 30% invested equity)

This is the price to pay for these new strong double digit returns! You can look at the SPY daily % drawdowns chart (drawdown on Emini margins must be leveraged by 20x)

new rules spy drawdowns

 

5 pivotal strategies for profitable futures trading

Greetings traders!

I am pleased to announce an exciting event featuring Nightly Patterns:

Dr. Dean’s lecture 

1728 Futures Trade Rooms: 5 pivotal strategies for profitable futures trading”

GTT_promo_image_Sept12_18

to be held on  Wednesday September 12, 2018; at 1:00 pm EST

Registration link:  here.

5 years and more Nightly Patterns sum up

Greetings traders!

It’s more than 5 years now Nightly Patterns is trading LIVE (October 2012). They will be 6 years in October 2018.

It’s not easy to find trading services that have been trading live for more than 5 years profitably.

What have traders following Nightly Patterns since October 2012 earned so far?

I know, I know… we lost in 2015. I’m not “Mr Market”. This is part of the game. We closed 6 profitable years out of 7. And that loss was very little compared to the huge profits.

Anyway, it depends on the number of contracts traded and their consistency. It’s not easy to be patient and consistent in the long run, specially during long and deep drawdowns. Updated results here. But at the end patience and consistency win the game!

Many of you have been keeping on trading and many have been trying and leaving. Consistency and patience, it pays to stay!

Here are the numbers:

5 years.png

Well, I have considered 6 years for the yearly subscription fee so $798*6 = $4788. And Ihave considered 1,2 as an average eur/usd change rate, as yearly Nightly Patterns fee is 665 Eur. I didn’t consider brokers futures trading fees. Mainly because trading frequency is low and futures fees per contract are usually very low too, the impact is minimal.

The % impact of Nightly Patterns subscription goes from 22% to 2% as we increase the number of contracts.

I let you think about the numbers!

Hope to see you in,

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

 

 

 

 

Is 200 SMA still alive?

Many traders usually ask me how do I know my overnight trading patterns will still be profitable in future.

Well, one way is to constantly monitor patterns stats and equity curves to see “how” they change with new data. But as we deal with hundreds of patterns, the main problem is that it can happen that a pattern equity curve goes out of the track for a few months and then, when the trader decides not to rely on it anymore, it suddenly comes back to be profitable.

The real question is: is there a way to detect if a change in the equity curve is temporary or permanent?

The answer is yes. We must move away from a single patterns stats and change perspective. Look at the general picture.
What is the underlying market phenomena telling us?
What is its equity curve doing now?

If it’s against us, then I will opt for the permanent change in the single patterns behaviour. Otherwise it’s only a fake failing.

Here we come with the first cornerstone of Nightly Patterns:  200 SMA (Simple Moving Average) used to filter long overnight trades on SPY back to 1993. We take all overnight trades on SPY when today’s close is above 200 SMA.

How is 200 SMA dealing with the new recent data?

NT %W PF AW AL MAX MIN % DRAWDOWN
4546 57,70 1,29 0,31 -0,33 4,09 -3,41 -13,56
    T-score 4,87        

It’s doing well from the numbers above. Good profit factor (improved from my last year stats). I remember it was weakening to 1,11.  4546 nights from 1993. I like the compounded drawdown which keeps there under 15%.

And here’s the equity curve:

200 SMA CORNERSTONE

Impressive start in the 90’s leads to good filtering efficiency in 2001/2 and 2008/9 big bear markets. It looks like we have problems recently but the equity curve resumed strongly upward.

I believe 200 SMA is one of the oldest and most well-known stock market filters and maybe, mainly because of that, it will be the last leaving the table!

It will continue… with the other cornerstones!

Marco Simioni

Nightly Patterns

Futures Trading Room – Overnight Overview of November the 6th 2017

Here’s what I sent to subscribers:

The following patterns are triggering:
SHORT PATTERNS 27-83-108-113-114- (PRICE-SEASONALITY)
ODDS MAP 0,74 – 39 – 46
STOP LOSS = 17 ES points
TAKE PROFIT = none 
I will enter SHORT.
I’m a bit late on reporting Nightly Patterns alerts. This was a very small losing trade…

Cyber Monday – QuantFor new website!

Greetings traders!

It’s a pleasure to announce new QuantFor website!

www.quantfor.wordpress.com

I worked a lot to create uncorrelated methodologies to trade the markets. Through proper diversification I managed to get:

CAGR = 73,76%

monthly max drawdown = -5,15%

through:

advised starting capital = $ 220.000

Here are the numbers:

ABOUT QUANTFOR 

You can purchase your yearly subscription through the old Quantfor page (with the old price of 1995 Euro) until Cyber Monday’s end!

Updated price will be applied on Tuesday (2495 Euro)

Exploiting Cyber Monday’s special weekend offer can save you 25% !

If you have any questions, I will be glad to answer you at:

quantfor@hotmail.com

Best regards,

Marco Simioni

Quantfor new page!

I have been asked many times by traders and institutional investors how a portfolio of my 3 trading methodologies would have performed during the years:

Nighly Patterns – Backtesting Vix – Gold Trading Gold 

 

That’s where QUANTFOR portfolio comes from.

How can traders achieve double digit returns cutting drawdowns?

To exploit Shannon’s Demon effect at better, we should keep portfolio’s allocation equal after each trade. This is somewhat time consuming on a daily basis, that’s why I thought to reallocate monthly the portfolio of strategies. I went back to April 2009, as far as vix etps inception.

Here are the monthly returns without reinvesting profits:

3MONTHLY

CAGR = 152%

Maximum monthly portfolio drawdown is limited to -12,42% !

The cumulative equity curve, showing the monthly cumulated gains, is one of the most solid I’ve ever seen:

3CUMULATIVE

Compounding returns once a month, below is the equity curve:

3COMPOUND

$1 invested at the beginning of every month would have grown to more than 3500 dollars in about 8 years! Here it is, a portfolio of strategies to compound with an extremely low monthly drawdown of only -12,42% and a double digit CAGR of about 187%. This is more than a system, this is how I really trade!

Minimum capital required = $20000 per system, totally $60000

Yearly Subscription Fee – 1995 Euro

Buy Now Button with Credit Cards

Best regards,

Marco Simioni

Nighly Patterns      nightlypatterns@hotmail.com

Backtesting Vix     nightlypatterns@hotmail.com

Gold Trading Gold      goldtradinggold@hotmail.com

Futures Trading Room – Overnight Overview of October the 11th 2017

Here’s what I sent to subscribers:

The following patterns are triggering:
SHORT PATTERNS 27-98-111 (PRICE)
LONG PATTERNS 33 (PRICE)
ODDS MAP 0,62 – 36 – 44
STOP LOSS = 31 ES points
TAKE PROFIT = none
I will enter SHORT.
This was a good bearish night with a nice profit of a few points!

Futures Trading Room – Overnight Overview of October the 5th 2017

Here’s what I sent to subscribers:

The following patterns are triggering:

SHORT PATTERNS 18-27-29-72-113-230-231-261-357- (PRICE-VOLUME-SEASONALITY-RSI)

ODDS MAP 0,05 – 21 – 19

STOP LOSS = 31 ES points

TAKE PROFIT = none

If the above rule triggers, I will enter SHORT.

We had a few interesting bearish setups this month, and finally the good one came,  pushing the equity curve to new highs.

Futures Trading Room – Overnight Overview of October the 3nd 2017

Here’s what I sent to subscribers:

The following patterns are triggering:

SHORT PATTERNS 18-72-81-113-210-211-261-266-357 (PRICE-VOLUME-RSI)

ODDS MAP 0,05 – 21 – 19

STOP LOSS = 31 ES points

TAKE PROFIT = none 

I will enter SHORT.

A very small gain to cover yesterday’s very small loss.

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