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Welcome to Nightly Patterns! – Overnight Trading

This futures trading room focusses on high leverage Overnight Trading with futures:

“Just open the trade at the close and, if not stopped, close it at the open.”

One of the main advantages of the Nightly Patterns trading style is that it gives traders the opportunity to trade at a specific time, avoiding constant market screening. Furthermore, it allows traders to keep their money in cash during the day, making it possible to add Overnight Trading to other Intraday Trading strategies. Its unique time horizon makes this trading style completely uncorrelated to most other strategies, leading to superior portfolio diversification.

To download the results excel sheet follow this link: TRADING RESULTS

Have a look at my over 400 PATTERNS library following this link: PATTERNS LIBRARY

This picture shows NIGHTLY PATTERNS’ equity growth without compounding profits:

EQUITY

I search nightly patterns like people in the north look for Aurora Borealis.

If you want to subscribe NIGHTLY PATTERNS follow the procedure here:

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The FREE posts will be published the day after with a short trade overview. (from 7th January 2015)

If you are interested in Nightly Patterns’ KNOWLEDGE,

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“I search nightly patterns like people in the north look for Aurora Borealis.”

AUSTRALIA-ANTARCTICA-AURORA AUSTRALIS

GLOBAL TRADE TITAN AWARD

Nightly Patterns belongs to the 14 best  sites

out of more than 1000 global futures trading rooms

again in 2015

TTW 2015 bb

WHO ARE THE GLOBAL TRADE TITANS?

Check them all at:

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I swing trade as a PROTRADER at:

VERIFIED INVESTING

Futures Trading Room – Overnight Overview of July the 26th 2016

I’m a bit late with overviews. I’m completing them all on the next few days. This is what I sent out before the last Fed Day:

Tomorrow is Fed Day. Calendary seasonality is highly bullish and I have many bullish patterns triggering. But the ODDS MAP warns for a short bias.

Below the numbers if SPY closes below 216.53 
BEARISH PATTERNS 23 (PRICE)
BULLISH PATTERNS 107 144 145 151 152 173 197 227 293 296 297 (PRICE – VIX – FED DAY)
ODDS MAP 0,56 40 10
The odds map is clearly bearish despite many bullish patterns are triggering. We are still in drawdown and we must me even more selective than usual.
That’s why I STAY OUT. This is a clear example of a tricky night.
I wanted to show how the Odds Map sometimes keeps us out improving our edge. 

Futures Trading Room – July the 14th Overnight Overview

This is the alert I sent to subscribers:

The following patterns are triggering:

SHORT PATTERNS 51-111-141-258-357-359 (PRICE-RSI)

I will enter SHORT.

ODDS MAP   0,66 – 46 – 37

Notes:

Stop Loss = 28 ES points

Profit Factor = none

We had 5 up gaps in a row. It only happened other 2 times in the past 20 years. Both opened down the next day.

Another painful trade despite strong bearish evidence. Sometimes can be frightening shorting all time highs, but if we backtest it, we get the following “nonsense” equity curve (shorting all the nights when today’s high is the all time high on SPY):

MAXS

And below is the same backtest but with today’s close at all time highs:

MAXS1

There are some hot long streaks and some hot short streaks. Mixed and too general edge to be considered. So there was nothing wrong with our last bad trades, they were just bad!

Futures Trading Room – July the 12th Overnight Overview

Below is the alert I sent to subscribers:

If SPY closes above 213,45 the following patterns will trigger:

SHORT PATTERNS 82-141-210-258-266-357-359 (PRICE-RSI)

If that happens I will enter SHORT.

Notes:

Stop Loss = 28 ES points

Take Profit = none

Again market gapped up the next day against my short position. The edges were there anyway, there was nothing wrong with the setup. As we are here taking these losses, we shall be here for the coming gains. Losing streaks can last many trades before resuming, and we need a lot of patience to survive these hateful trades.

Futures Trading Room – July the 11th Overnight Overview

Below is the alert I sent to subscribers:

If SPY closes above yesterday’s close at 212,7 the following patterns will trigger:

SHORT PATTERNS 72-141-142-176-211-258-269-357 (PRICE-VIX-RSI)

ODDS MAP   0,07 – 19 – 21

If that happens, I will enter SHORT.

Notes: 

Stop Loss = 28 ES points

Take Profit = none

Calendar seasonality is neutral but the ODDS MAP is extremely bearish.

I updated the results sheet with this trade. SPY gapped up again made the third gap up in a row with new all time highs. There was nothing wrong with this trade decision, just the odds didn’t play out. Difficult trades and difficult times. That’s it.

Futures Trading Room – 5th July Overnight Overview

It was a frustrating night. The odds were good, but the built up so weekly that I couldn’t look for new specific patterns to confirm the trade. I sent the alert a bit late, in time to trade, but late. Some traders were lucky to miss it, other did it. As it was attractive but a bit risky trade, I didn’t send this alert to the new traders approaching Nightly Patterns. Anyway I updated my track record with it.

Here’s the alert:

The following patterns are triggering:
 
LONG PATTERNS 56-95-178-179-180-252-253-254 (VIX-PRICE-SEASONALITY)
 
ODDS MAP 3,33 – 69 – 108
 
Take profit 15 es points
Stop loss 27 es points
 
I’m entering LONG
Let’s see how the odds will play out tonight!

Patience…

Be patient. It doesn’t seem easy to do, especially when facing extremely volatile periods. I updated the results sheet with the last trades during this boring month. I learnt that when some few losing trades come, I don’t have to aggressively look for new trades.

I must be patient and look for nights with high odds. Be selective. Good traders must be able to wait. I prefer getting bored with a few losses on my account than live in a tremendous drawdown.

Today’s Hiroshima British vote could crash the market and lead it towards 2008 regime. Or in a new strong trend up. Nobody can know. I’m leaning bearish on the long term:

All the gap need to be filled

No patterns can hold such a 50/50 odds event. Let’s keep out and wait for Monday to come at least.

That’s why I created the Odds Map. We must me able to wait. Good trades are there to come.

 

Futures Trading Room – May the 11th – Overnight Overview

This was the alert I sent to subscribers:

If SPY today’s low is lower than 206,4 the following patterns will trigger:

LONG PATTERNS 164-178-179-180-248-373 (PRICE)
If that happens, I will enter LONG.
Notes: 26 Emini points
ODDS MAP   3,9 – 76 – 185
It would have been a good winning night, but the trigger was “tricky”. Some traders took the trade, others didn’t. It happens. I manage to take it, but it was just by chance and good luck. I could easily have been part of those who sat out.
When these ambiguous triggers happen, it would be better to stay out and watch.
Anyway, it depends on us and our personal risk attitude.
As usual, I’m not tracking this “tricky” trade on my results sheet, although I would like to.

Futures Trading Room – Overnight Overview of May the 4th 2016

This is the alert I sent to subscribers:

If SPY close below yesterday’s close at 206,16 the following patterns will trigger:

LONG PATTERNS 84-95-107-164-173-178-213-217-292-293-296-297-298-320-339-390 (PRICE-RSI-VIX)

If that happens, I will enter LONG.

Notes:
Stop Loss = 27 Emini points
Profit Factor = 18,5
Calendar Seasonality is neutral.

The ODDS  MAP for 16 long patterns triggering highlights good profit factor above 2 and % of winnings above 65%:
enough to take the trade.

It could have been better: futures retraced more than half of the gain before I exited the trade as usual. Small profit is better than loss, as it’s impossible to forecast the high of the night.

VIX QUANTIFIED PATTERNS GUIDE

I am pleased to announce the release of the new:

 VIX QUANTIFIED PATTERNS GUIDE

Please find all the details in the link above.

Have a good and profitable reading,

Marco Simioni

Futures Trading Room – Overnight Overview of April the 29th 2016

This is the alert I sent to subscribers:

If SPY closes below today’s open at 206,72 the following patterns will trigger:
 
LONG PATTERNS 25-95-107-164-197-198-202-292-293-294-295-296-297-298-339-390 (PRICE-SEASONALITY-VIX)
 
If that happens, I will enter LONG.
 
Note: Stop loss = 27 ES points
 
Calendary Seasonality looks highly bullish again. It is Friday, the 21th day of April, this happened only 5 times in the past,
all of them were bullish nights.
 
The ODDS MAP with 16 long patterns triggering together, shows strong numbers again confirming the trade.

This was a nice weekend trade with 7 Emini points gain that lead again the equity curve to its past highs.

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